Ecological Modeling

Aeolian flux of microorganisms in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Poster Number: 
380
Presenter/Primary Author: 
Marie Sabacka

The McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica (MCM) forms one of the most extreme deserts on Earth. It consists of a mosaic of permanently ice-covered lakes, ephemeral streams, exposed soils, and glaciers. Microorganisms are the only life forms occupying these landscape units. Given the relatively low and seasonal growth rates of these organisms, we contend that the distribution of microorganisms within this environment is controlled by physical factors.

The California Current Ecosystem (CCE) LTER Site

Poster Number: 
369
Presenter/Primary Author: 
Mark Ohman

The California Current System is a coastal upwelling biome, as found along the eastern margins of all major ocean basins. These are among the more productive ecosystems in the world ocean. The California Current Ecosystem (CCE) LTER site (centered on 32.9° N, 120.3° W) is investigating nonlinear transitions in the California Current coastal pelagic ecosystem, with particular attention to long-term forcing by a secular warming trend, multi-decadal oscillations (e.g., PDO and NPGO), and ENSO in altering the structure and dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem.

Spatio-temporal variability in alpine plant species composition on Niwot Ridge, Colorado

Poster Number: 
364
Presenter/Primary Author: 
Hope Humphries

Spatial and temporal changes in alpine plant species composition were analyzed at the landscape, plant community, and individual species levels. We standardized field observations for 88 gridded vegetation plots sampled in 1990, 1997, and 2006 on Niwot Ridge, Colorado and developed spatial environmental data for the study area (snow cover, growing-degree days, time of meltout, and solar radiation). At the landscape scale, growing-degree days increased from 1990 to 2006, while the snow-covered period decreased and meltout occurred earlier.

Arctic LTER: Goals and Results

Poster Number: 
347
Presenter/Primary Author: 
John Hobbie

The goal of the Arctic LTER is to predict the future ecological characteristics of Arctic Alaska based upon our knowledge of the controls of ecosystem structure and function as exerted by physical setting and geologic factors, climatic factors, biotic factors, and the changes in fluxes of water and materials from land to water.

Patterns and Processes of Fragmentation Near Konza Prairie LTER

Poster Number: 
322
Presenter/Primary Author: 
Tom Prebyl

Fragmentation of natural habitats, driven by urban growth and other land use modifications, acts to decrease the amount of core habitat as well as the connectivity among core areas. As a result, landscape fragmentation can have negative impacts on the ecological communities, ecosystem services, and metapopulation dynamics.

Interactions between hurricanes and the legacy of human disturbance, determine the future composition of the Luquillo Forest.

Poster Number: 
316
Presenter/Primary Author: 
Jill Thompson

The Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFDP) is a 16-ha long-term study plot in subtropical wet forest in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. It is part of the Luquillo LTER and the Center for Tropical Science (CTFS) network of large tropical forest plots. Forests are often subject to multiple, compounded disturbances, representing both natural and human-induced processes. Our goal is to understand forest structure, diversity and dynamics, and to predict long-term changes resulting from interactions of past human land use and intermittent hurricane damage.

Water Yield Modeling of Forested Watersheds in the Southern Appalachians

Poster Number: 
271
Presenter/Primary Author: 
Katherine Kove

Climate change, insect defoliation, and management practices alter species composition and hence plant water use and catchment water yield.

The Harvard Forest LTER

Poster Number: 
257
Presenter/Primary Author: 
Audrey Barker Plotkin

The temperate forests of eastern North America support high biodiversity and critical ecosystem functions while providing natural resources and cultural benefits to an expanding human population. The region is shaped by a legacy of landscape change: major shifts in climate, vegetation and disturbance at millennial time scales; extensive deforestation for agriculture in the 17th – 19th centuries; and abandonment of farmlands, natural reforestation and increasing urbanization through the mid-21st century.

Predicting annual lake characteristics with comparative and temporal models: the importance of neighboring lakes and lake history in minimizing prediction errors

Poster Number: 
245
Presenter/Primary Author: 
Noah Lottig

Two major foundations of ecosystem science are comparative analyses and long-term studies. Here, we explore the capacity of long-term and comparative data to predict lake characteristics (LCs). We ask if a variable is best explained by neighboring lakes (NL; comparative data), lake history (LH; temporal data), or by some combination of the two.

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