Understanding state change via long-term datasets

Poster Disciplines/Format:
Final Report (Required, .pdf format only) : 
Brandon Bestelmeyer

The notion that ecological systems can exist in two or more states has become a central idea at the interface of basic and applied ecology. Climate change, stochastic events, and natural resource-use pressures can lead ecological systems to cross thresholds and undergo transitions, regime shifts, phase shifts, or catastrophic shifts (i.e., threshold dynamics) that are problematic to predict, important to society, and are difficult or impossible to reverse. Too often, however, the potential for and existence of threshold dynamics is supported by verbal narratives, great enthusiasm, and few data. Following from a previous EcoTrends State Change working group that met earlier this year, our goal is to outline a flexible, pluralistic, data-driven approach to threshold dynamics. We seek to explore how multiple data sets (both long- and short-term) can be organized and related to one another to support mechanistic models of threshold dynamics. We discuss the current status of the framework as outlined in a draft paper. Because this working group continues a previous effort, we wish initially to limit attendance to previous participants of the EcoTrends working group. Others interested in attending should contact the organizer for more information.

Session Info

Working Group Session 4

Tue, 09/15/2009 - 3:00pm - 6:00pm
Reusch Auditorium Hobbs